Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016526 0.018708 0.021073 0.023827 0.026946 0.030372 0.034419
2025-08-31 0.012861 0.015812 0.019284 0.023673 0.029079 0.035526 0.043811
2025-09-07 0.011129 0.014477 0.018644 0.024215 0.031482 0.040656 0.053148
2025-09-14 0.009403 0.012806 0.017240 0.023447 0.031932 0.043154 0.059176
2025-09-21 0.008249 0.011690 0.016354 0.023149 0.032823 0.046147 0.065972
2025-09-28 0.007198 0.010568 0.015300 0.022443 0.032990 0.048050 0.071302
2025-10-05 0.006788 0.010298 0.015388 0.023328 0.035453 0.053356 0.081958
2025-10-12 0.006352 0.009930 0.015278 0.023878 0.037426 0.058059 0.092087
2025-10-19 0.005987 0.009628 0.015224 0.024483 0.039500 0.063045 0.103049
2025-10-26 0.005502 0.009085 0.014738 0.024343 0.040354 0.066150 0.111222
2025-11-02 0.005107 0.008646 0.014371 0.024348 0.041416 0.069638 0.120279
2025-11-09 0.004669 0.008093 0.013765 0.023889 0.041641 0.071723 0.127088
2025-11-16 0.004396 0.007805 0.013588 0.024165 0.043180 0.076217 0.138602
2025-11-23 0.004073 0.007400 0.013178 0.023997 0.043922 0.079388 0.148051
2025-11-30 0.003894 0.007238 0.013174 0.024546 0.045990 0.085068 0.162582
2025-12-07 0.003539 0.006718 0.012483 0.023767 0.045524 0.086060 0.168333
2025-12-14 0.003285 0.006366 0.012068 0.023466 0.045919 0.088667 0.177388
2025-12-21 0.003002 0.005933 0.011466 0.022750 0.045444 0.089554 0.183091
2025-12-28 0.002941 0.005928 0.011679 0.023647 0.048223 0.096998 0.202679
2026-01-04 0.002843 0.005840 0.011723 0.024205 0.050357 0.103315 0.220481
2026-01-11 0.002756 0.005769 0.011792 0.024818 0.052648 0.110124 0.239907
2026-01-18 0.002598 0.005535 0.011513 0.024676 0.053336 0.113652 0.252543
2026-01-25 0.002466 0.005346 0.011310 0.024682 0.054334 0.117904 0.267127